Oekraïne: petrochemie, kwartaal IV - 2011
- De Oekraïnse petrochemische industrie heeft 6 olieraffinaderijen.
- Deze 6 raffinaderijen produceren gezamenlijk meer dan 1,1 miljoen vaten per dag.
- De industrie heeft heeft de steun van grote Russische olie en gas entiteiten, waardonder Lukoil en TNK-BP (Russisch-Brits concern).
The Ukrainian petrochemicals industry is enjoying a strong export-led recovery, but this remains precarious and subject to high levels of external risk, according to BMI's latest Ukraine Petrochemicals Report.
In H111, chemical and petrochemical output grew 18.3% y-o-y with basic chemicals up 38.3%, rubber products down 5.3% and plastic products up 7.1%. Performance declined through Q211, particularly in June, as base effects wore off. On a y-o-y basis, primary plastics output in H111 was up 75.1% to 234,800 tonnes with monthly output in June up 155% y-o-y and at the highest level since March 2008. Output was boosted by the start of production at Karpatneftekhim's new PVC complex at the beginning of the month. The 300,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) suspension vinyl facility in Kalush was expected to be completed in 2009, but has suffered from continuous delays due to the poor performance of the Russian PVC market. The resumption of growth in Russian construction activity in 2011 should support Ukrainian PVC exports and output going forward.
The positive figures mark a stronger-than-expected turnaround in downstream segments, in line with better growth figures prompted by rising exports and investment as well as a significantly stronger than expected recovery in household consumption. Exports rose 48.7% y-o-y in Q111. We continue to see robust export performance through to the end of 2011, which will underpin the recovery. We expect the export of goods to rise by 18.0% in 2011, slowing from the stellar Q111 rate as positive base effects fade.
According to the Ukrainian State Statistics Committee (Ukrstat), Ukraine boasted real GDP growth of 5.2% y-o-y in Q111 compared to 3.3% in Q410. BMI has revised its estimate upwards from 3.6% to 4.4%, to reflect this trend. In turn, we have forecast plastic output of 490,000 tonnes in 2011, an increase of 44% y-o-y, helped in large part by the pull of export growth in plastic-consuming industries. The export-oriented nature of growth in petrochemicals means that the industry is highly exposed to external risks. A significant deterioration in the demand for Ukraine's major export products would pose a major setback for the industry. In addition, we highlight that the relative competitiveness enjoyed by Ukrainian petrochemicals exporters will be eroded by rising domestic gas prices as government subsidies are withdrawn under Kiev's International Monetary Fund (IMF) Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) as well as the rise in oil prices, which will spur the growth in naphtha feedstock.
Ukraine remains in joint 8th place -- with Bulgaria -- in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment matrix with its score remaining at 40.0 points. This puts Ukraine 6.2 points behind Romania and Slovakia and 6.7 points ahead of Azerbaijan.
