Oekraïne: olie en gas, kwartaal IV - 2011

• Oekraïne is met 356.000 vaten olie per dag (b/d) een bescheiden verbruiker.
• Het land zal wat betreft olie en gas in toenemende mate afhankelijk worden van de import.
• Rusland zal hierin een dominante rol blijven spelen.

Een uitgebreid marktrapport is beschikbaar gesteld door Business Monitor International (BMI). Meer informatie leest u in onderstaande summary van BMI.

In recent years, Ukraine's energy sector has been dominated by questions of gas pricing and supply deals with the country's main energy partner, Russia. BMI's latest Ukraine Oil & Gas Report comes at a time when these questions appear to be coming to a head, with Ukraine unwilling or unable to sustain payments for gas at their current level. Cheap gas has boosted Ukraine's economy since independence in 1991 and, following the collapse in consumption in 2009, gas use now appears to recovering slowly. With gas consumption set to grow from 45bcm in 2010 to 51bcm by 2015, Ukraine is unlikely to reach the huge consumption of previous years, but will face a steadily rising import demand that will not be met by production of 20.0bcm by 2015.

Ukraine is a modest consumer of oil, using 356,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. We see scope for this to increase by 15% to 411,000b/d by 2015, far outpacing domestic production. Ukrainian oil production looks set to fall from 73,000b/d in 2010, to 63,000b/d by 2015 on the back of declining reserves and a lack of investment. This means the country will become increasingly dependent on imports, which will increase from 283,000b/d in 2010 to 348,000b/d by 2015.

In the long-term, Ukrainian gas production looks set to fall further putting pressure on the country to increase imports. Upside risks to this scenario are posed by the possibility of increased shale gas exploration, which is looking increasingly likely following a series of tentative agreement with international oil companies looking for the next big shale gas frontier after Ukraine's neighbour Poland. This risk aside, Ukraine is likely to be producing 16bcm by 2020, down 20% from 2015 levels. On the other hand consumption will rise 13% to 58bcm, suggesting 42bcm of imports.

Ukrainian oil production will continue to fall in the second half of the decade, dropping 23% to only 48,000b/d by 2020. Also continuing earlier trends, oil production will continue to rise steadily, increasing to 476,000b/d. Even following significant likely improvements in refinery utilisation, Ukraine will remain a substantial refined products importer due to technical problems and a shrinking capacity.

Although Russia will continue to dominate oil supply in the region, backed by huge and under-exploited reserves, the Caspian states have an important role to play, with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan making an increasingly significant contribution. The growth rate in Russian oil supply has slowed appreciably since the early-2000s but the acceleration of Caspian expansion means that the region will make a growing contribution to world oil production.

Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.

Ukraine holds eighth place in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country now holds ninth place in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, behind Bulgaria, ,thanks to only modest hydrocarbons resources. Its gas reserves and favourable licensing regime account for much of the upstream score, but country risk factors and privatisation activity are less impressive. Ukraine is in the upper half of the league table in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, claiming seventh place. The country obtains a few high scores, but progress further up the rankings is unlikely. It holds good scores for its refining capacity, oil and gas demand, retail site intensity and population.