Oekraïne: economie
Economie:
- Na een zeer sterke krimp van het bbp in 2009, is de Oekraïense economie begonnen met een licht herstel in 2010. Toen groeide het bbp met 4,2 procent. Voor de periode 2011-2013 verwacht de EIU een economische groei van gemiddeld 4 procent per jaar.
- Oekraïne heeft na Rusland het grootste inwoneraantal in de regio. Het land biedt met 45,8 miljoen consumenten een grote afzetmarkt. Daarnaast beschikt het over goedkope en goedopgeleide arbeidskrachten.
- In 2008 is Oekraïne toegetreden tot de Wereldhandelsorganisatie. Met dit lidmaatschap zal het ondernemingsklimaat verbeteren door eenvoudige procedures, afnemende handelsbelemmeringen en dalende douanetarieven.
- Oekraïne organiseert samen met Polen het EK voetbal 2012. Naar verwachting biedt dit veel kansen in vooral de infrastructuur.
Deze informatie is van Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Een uitgebreid rapport is bij EIU beschikbaar.
Outlook for 2012-16: Economic growth
The economy recovered in 2010, with real GDP growing by 4.2%, following a steep drop, of 14.8%, in 2009. Growth in 2010 was driven by the main export oriented industries, and increasingly by the return to health of the household sector. This pattern continued into the first quarter of 2011, when real GDP
expanded by 5.3% year on year. Nonetheless, economic growth slowed in April- June to 3.8% as manufacturing growth slowed. In the third quarter GDP growth accelerated to 6.6%, owing largely to surging agricultural output amid a good harvest. Retailsaleshave also continued to rise strongly. We expect slower growth in the fourth quarter as industrial output continues to weaken and steel
prices decline further. Overall, we estimate growth of 4.7% in 2011.
We forecast slower growth in 2012, at 3.2%, owing to a significant deterioration in the world economy. The economy of Russia, Ukraine’s foremost trade partner, is forecast to expand more slowly in 2012 than in 2010-11. In addition, we forecast a recession in the euro zone, another important trade partner for Ukraine. Given slower global growth, we also forecast lower steel prices in 2011. This will harm Ukraine’s export performance.
Weaker export prospects will undermine the performance of the large industrial sector, and this will cause a slackening of domestic demand, which has rebounded fairly robustly in 2010-11. Some respite may come from the ongoing need for investment in domestic construction ahead of the Euro 2012 football championships (Ukraine is co-hosting them with Poland). The government is likely to increase spending ahead of the election in October 2012, although it will be constrained by the need to maintain a path of fiscal consolidation.
The accumulation of risks in the global economy suggests that the risks to the 2012 forecast remain on the downside. Ukraine is not as exposed as it was in 2008 before the economic crisis, but the economy remains extremely vulnerable to a shortage of external financing, and a more pronounced
downturn should not be discounted. Financial turmoil resulting from an EU banking crisis would have a significant impact on Ukraine, given large corporate and government debt rollover needs. The IMF agreement can be seen as a safety net, provided that the disbursement of funds restarts in 2012.
However, this is far from certain, given the government’s reluctance to raise gas tariffs ahead of the election.
Assuming that the world economy recovers from 2013, real GDP growth in Ukraine is forecast to trend above 4% annually in 2013-16. This forecast assumes that the government will be more effective at policymaking than in the past, when the president and parliament worked against each other. These growth rates are weaker than those in the years immediately preceding the economic and financial crisis in 2008, mainly because credit and wage growth will be weaker. Consumer spending will also be constrained by higher indebtedness, and the government will be on a path of fiscal retrenchment.
