Oekraïne: bouw en infrastructuur, kwartaal IV - 2011

• De bouw- en infrastructuursector krijgt nog alltijd een sterke impuls door het naderende Europese voetbalkampioenschap.
• Vooral in de regio's Volyn, Kyiv and Cherkasy wordt veel gebouwd.
• Zowel de Wereldbank als de Europese Investeringsbank (EIB) blijven investeren in de sector.

Een uitgebreid marktrapport is beschikbaar gesteld door Business Monitor International (BMI). Meer informatie leest u in onderstaande summary van BMI.

Ukraine's beleaguered construction sector shows continued signs of growth thanks largely to the impetus of the 2012 football championships. We maintain our forecasts for growth this quarter as we see the industry responding well to demand. Q1 2011 construction industry value was 7.8% higher than Q1 2010. We expect the industry value to reach US$4.9bn in 2011 equating to 5.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth. Over the forecast period, sustained growth will raise the industry value to US$9bn by 2015.

Key developments in the last quarter

The overall value of the construction sector, construction site preparation and building and facility construction in Ukraine rose by 13.2%, 13.9% and 16.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) respectively during the five months to May 2011, according to Kyiv Post. The highest rise in construction volumes were seen in the Volyn, Kyiv and Cherkasy regions, which were significantly above national averages. Construction completion and the installation of utility equipment fell, however, during the same period.

State-owned Export-Import Bank of Ukraine (Ukreximbank) secured a US$200mn loan from the World Bank to finance an energy efficiency project, reports Kyiv Post. According to the deal, which was signed on June 10 2011, the World Bank will loan the money to Ukreximbank against government guarantees over 30 years.  The energy efficiency project is designed to reduce energy use and loss in the Ukrainian utilities industry. The World Bank will screen borrowers and other banks involved in the project to ensure they are contributing to the project s objectives.

The European Investment Bank (EIB) has announced that it is set to provide a EUR450mn (US$642.8mn) loan in order to fund the refurbishment of major roads in the Ukraine. The loan is the largest made by the EIB to the Eastern bloc. The improvements are expected to tackle approximately 350km across the five sections of highway around the capital

We view the risk of a breakdown in relations between Kiev and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as having risen well above the level that could be considered non-negligible. Nevertheless, our long-held view for Ukraine to adhere its IMF Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) remains our core scenario and forms the basis of our political, economic and financial market outlooks for the country.

Political tensions are also rising between Ukraine and Russia, as the former moves into the concluding stages of negotiations regarding its Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the European Union (EU). We expect Russia to step up its efforts to dissuade Kiev from pursuing greater ties with the EU. Ultimately, we believe that Kiev and Moscow will come to some sort of agreement in exchange for Ukraine shelving the DCFTA. Nevertheless, we caution that tensions are likely to remain elevated in the near term as Russia and Ukraine continue to pursue aggressive lines of bargaining, and we do not rule out diplomatic ructions coming to a head.