Oekraïne: agro, kwartaal IV - 2011

• De voedselverwerkende industrie is sterk in ontwikkeling in de Oekraïne, dit biedt investeringsmogelijkheden voor agrarische productie.
• Er is behoefte aan betere en innovatievere landbouwmethoden.
• De Oekraïense graanproductie is nog niet verzadigd.

Een uitgebreid marktrapport is beschikbaar gesteld door Business Monitor International (BMI). Meer informatie leest u in onderstaande summary van BMI.

As we predicted, Ukraine's grain export quotas were lifted on July 1 2011, though they have been replaced with a duty regime that so far appears to be restricting export activity. The outlook for the 2011/12 season is somewhat ambivalent, with reports of a bumper harvest being hindered by heavy rains rendering much of it suitable only for feed. The likely impact of the change in the Ukrainian export regime on global grains prices is therefore tough to call. But with heavy damage to Western European and US crops in 2011, we believe Ukrainian grain exports are likely to prove attractive to traders, duties notwithstanding.

Key forecasts

• We are forecasting wheat production in 2011/12 of 19.8mn tonnes, up 17.8% on 2010/11's disastrous harvest.
• A bumper corn crop is expected thanks to the same rains that may have affected wheat quality. We are forecasting production in 2011/12 of 16.2mn tonnes, up 36.2% y-o-y.
• In 2010/11, we are continuing to forecast a y-o-y decline in milk production of 5.8% to 10.5mn tonnes.
• The declining supply of milk will raise cheese input prices. In 2010/11, we are forecasting cheese production of 205,000 tonnes, down 6.7% y-o-y.
• Out to 2014/15, we see poultry production as the most modern and dynamic sector of Ukraine's livestock industry, leading the way with growth of 40.7% to reach 963,240 tonnes.
• New figures show poultry consumption in 2010 came in at 904.920 tonnes. In 2011, we expect poultry consumption to rise 1.8% y-o-y to 920,960 tonnes.

Industry developments

On July 1, the government finally removed grain export quotas, to the delight of many farmers. However, with the government still cautious about ensuring domestic supply, the quota regime has been replaced with export duties. Duties, which are expected to expire on December 31, will apply as follows: 9% on wheat, 12% on corn and 14% on barley. In addition, a zero rate of VAT on grain exports also expired.

The outlook for the 2011/12 season is somewhat ambivalent, with reports of a bumper harvest combining with reports of heavy rains rendering much of it suitable only for feed. A report in the Wall Street Journal on August 4 suggested as much as 60% of Ukraine's wheat exports were unsuitable for human consumption.

Fredrick Aherne, the British CEO of dairy processor Milkiland, recently said he believed cooperatives were the only way for household producers, which provide 50% of the company's milk, to stay in business. Thus far, dairy cooperatives are yet to take off in any significant way in Ukraine. For example, of the 11mn litres of milk that Milkiland buys every week, just 84,000 litres come from cooperatives. Nevertheless, we expect increasing pressure on household producers will ensure that the number of them working inside cooperatives grows over the years to come.