Duitsland: economie

Economie:
 

• Duitsland behoort met een inkomen per hoofd van 37.235 US dollar (2010) tot de rijkere EU-lidstaten. Het EU-gemiddelde ligt op 31.737 US dollar (eurozone 34.328 US dollar).
• De Duitse beroepsbevolking is relatief hoog opgeleid. De productiviteit - gemeten als de gemiddelde productie per uur - is echter lager dan in omliggende landen.
• Het aantal Duitsers met betaald werk is in vergelijking met het gemiddelde van het eurogebied hoog. Binnen de EU hebben Denemarken en Nederland een hogere werkgelegenheidsgraad.
• Duitsland huisvest een groot aantal internationaal gerenommeerde multinationals als Adidas, BASF, Bayer, BMW, Bosch, Daimler, Deutsche Post, Deutsche Bank, MAN, RWE, SAP en het Volkswagen-concern. Daarnaast heeft Duitsland een groot aantal innovatieve, hoog productieve en wereldwijd opererende mkb-bedrijven.
• In de periode 2000-2010 groeide de Duitse economie met gemiddeld 1,1 procent per jaar, wat duidelijk lager is dan de gemiddelde bbp-groei van het Verenigd Koninkrijk (1,7 procent) en Nederland (1,5 procent). Voor 2011 en 2012 verwacht EIU een bbp-groei van respectievelijk 2,9 procent en 1 procent.

Deze informatie is van Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Een uitgebreid rapport is bij EIU beschikbaar.

Outlook for 2011-12: Economic growth

The strong upswing of the German economy since the downturn in 2008-09 has been impressive, but in line with a deceleration in most OECD countries, we expect the economy to slow down considerably in the second half of 2011 and in 2012. Export growth is projected to weaken owing to fiscal tightening in other developed economies. Domestic demand will be dented by caution from consumers and businesses. We forecast growth to slow to 2.9% in 2011, 1% in 2012 and an average of 1.7% in 2013-16. However, the euro area debt crisis and the potential for a break-up of the currency represent a high downside risk to this growth forecast.
 
After growing by 13.4% in 2010, we expect that export growth will decelerate to 8.6% in 2011, owing to fiscal tightening in most major markets. Import growth is expected to decelerate from 11.5% in 2010 to a still strong 7.9% in 2011. Net exports will make a strong contribution to GDP growth in 2011, but the contribution will be slightly lower in 2012-16. During these years, export and import growth rates are both forecast to decelerate to around 4-5% per year. Import growth is forecast to exceed export growth in some years.
 
Despite a strong labour and positive consumer confidence, private consumption growth has fallen back in 2011, and we forecast fairly modest growth rates on average in 2011-16, with the lowest rate recorded in 2012, at 0.3%, when we expect German consumers to be at their most cautious. In particular, fears over Germany’s liabilities in supporting other euro area members are expected to contribute to weak household spending, even though balance sheets remain comfortable. An expansion of employment should support domestic demand in the forecast period, but wage negotiations are likely to deliver more moderate wage growth from 2012, as the economic environment becomes weaker. Investment growth is forecast to peak in 2011, at 7.2%. This will be supported by strong export demand for German goods, a domestic recovery and some pent-up demand. Fixed investment spending is forecast to surpass pre-crisis levels in 2011, but to expand at lower rates of 2-3% in 2013-14, before picking up slightly in 2015-16. Government consumption is expected to grow only moderately, although we project a pick-up around the time of the expected 2013 general election.