China: buitenlandse handel

Buitenlandse handel

• China was in 2010 het grootste exportland ter wereld, en het op een na grootste importland. De Chinese export steeg in 2010 van 1.581 miljard naar 1.879 miljard US dollar. Voor 2011 wordt een totale export aan goederen van 2.040 miljard US dollar verwacht.
• De Chinese import zal door de aantrekkende binnenlandse vraag naar verwachting sneller groeien dan de export. In 2010 steeg de Chinese import van 954 miljard naar 1.327 miljard US dollar. De Economist Intelligence Unit voorspelt een sterke groei van de import van goederen naar 1.664 miljard US dollar in 2011, 25 procent meer dan in 2010.
• De belangrijkste exportproducten van China zijn elektronica en textielproducten. China's import bestaat voor een groot gedeelte uit elektronica en ruwe grondstoffen. Nederland importeert met name computers, elektronica en speelgoed uit China. Grondstoffen voor recycling zijn de belangrijkste producten die Nederland naar China exporteert.

Outlook for 2011-12: External sector.
China's current-account surplus was equivalent to an estimated 2.9% of GDP in 2011, well below the peak of 10.1% reached in 2007. The surplus is expected to continue to shrink in the forecast period, falling to 0.3% of GDP in 2016. Although merchandise exports are forecast to rise by 11.6% a year on average in 2012-16, this will be well below the supercharged rate of expansion recorded in  2002-07, when annual export growth averaged 29%. A large proportion of China's imports consists of components that are assembled domestically before being shipped overseas again, and the country's imports and exports therefore tend to expand at similar rates. However, a growing proportion of merchandise imports are used to make goods that are consumed domestically, and, at an  average of 13.4% a year, import growth will outpace export expansion in 2012­16. As a result, the trade surplus will fall, but at US$133.7bn in 2016 it will remain substantial.

The services deficit will widen considerably in 2012-16, largely reflecting a surge in overseas travel by Chinese tourists. In addition, the economy’s growing sophistication will see demand for imports of professional services increase rapidly, although exports of services will also grow, reflecting the rising earnings of Chinese companies working on infrastructure projects abroad. We have revised sharply down our forecast for China's balance on income flows in 2012­16, which reflects apparent changes in the way the income data is measured by China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The current transfers account will remain in surplus in 2012-16, owing to the high level of remittances from overseas Chinese. As China tries to make the renminbi an international currency, controls on capital flows into and out of China are likely to be significantly relaxed in 2012-16, but full capital account liberalisation by 2015 (which some PBC officials have suggested is a policy goal) looks unlikely.
 

• Deze informatie is van de Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) afkomstig. Een volledig en meest recent rapport is bij EIU beschikbaar.